Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – July 9, 2015

Look at that wind shear! No Tropical Surf!

We have a major El Niño event going on in the Pacific (read about it here). It will continue for the rest of the year. It will affect us. We will have extreme wind shear over what is normally considered the main development region for Tropical Systems in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. This area will be closed for business during the 2015 Hurricane Season. On that note, it’s good for PR in that we almost certainly will not be hit by a major storm this season. Also, any storms that may form should get their strength in latitudes above our island, another plus. If they can travel far enough west we can get some swell from the higher latitude storms. That’s looking on the bright side. On the down side, there is most likely going to be no signifcant tropical development this season. The odds are not in our favor. I hope we get some sneaker storms in September at least. We’ll have to see.

So what do we have to look forward to?

The wind flows should be conducive to summer time surf at the summer time spots on the island. Rincon will be flat A LOT but several other nooks and crannies of the island that can take advantage of long Easterly fetch should have waves on tap for several days of each smouldering hot month of summer. Some of these breaks are on the northern coast of the island, some are on the east coast, some are in the southeast. I’m sorry I can’t be more specific on their locations, but I’ll at least try to post pictures of what I find in my summertime wave searches around the island.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.