Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – July 14, 2015

Tropical Storm Claudette will not be making any major surf for Rincon.

Tropical Storm Claudette forms – no major surf expected.

Tropical Storm Claudette is actually looking decent on satellite imagery, but she just doesn’t have the right trajectory or amount of strength to be a significant surf generator. If she was dipping down or intensifying or both then we could see a better chance at some tropical swell. Unfortunately, she’s doing the opposite of that. She’s moving away from us (as she has since formation) and is going to weaken. We still might see some background swell at some point over the next couple of days, but don’t expect too much.

Keep an eye on different parts of the island.

There are tropical waves passing the lower Atlantic and Caribbean. They have no chance whatsoever of forming down there, but they do have the ability to make fun waves at certain unique spots on the island. The southeast corner of PR has plenty of opportunities. If a wave is strong enough pressure-wise the north side of the island can see some fun surf as well. Now is the time to explore.

When does a higher latitude storm give Rincon waves?

When it’s very strong and has a solid high pressure build in behind it to amplify it’s backside fetch. We need a long fetch pointed at us to get surf no matter what force of nature is causing it. Also, if we do get a larger high latitude storm and it happens to make a wobble south or dip down we almost always get some good swell. Rapid intensification is also good for groundswell. When a storm sits kinda stationary in our swell wind and then rapidly intensifies it sets a bomb off in the ocean. Anything Category 3 and above in our swell window will generally give us good surf. These are the scenarios to watch for. I hope we see it happen this season.

Today

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Tue

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Wed

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Thu

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Fri

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Sat

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Sun

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Mon

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.