Rincon Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Oct 5, 2016

Hurricane Matthew to make another round of surf after wreaking havoc on the East coast of FL.

Hurricane Matthew is still a large and powerful storm. He’s going to take a very very dangerous path for the Bahamas and the East Coast of FL. The shift to the west in his forecast track negatively affects his NW swell generation for us until later in the forecast period. We should still see some background swell in the waist high range over the next few days from his trek across the Bahamas. Late in the forecast period, do you notice that hook and swoop? That is what some top notch NW hurricane swell in the making looks like. That swoop is what it’s all about. Hope for the swoop! Next week could be EPIC if he maintains strength and does the swoop.

Tropical Storm Nicole forecast to drunkenly meander about the ocean – some surf possible.

Though not a very large or powerful storm, her motion around the 65W barrier means some smaller surf could make its way to PR. Especially since we should have dead winds or south winds through the weekend, the north coast of Puerto Rico should be fun for the rest of the week and all weekend! Head up to Isabela if Rincon isn’t big enough and you should be able to score some decent waves!

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.