Rincon Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Oct 6, 2016

Hurricane Matthew and Hurricane Nicole – More Surf!

Hurricane Matthew is as big and strong as ever. Sorry Florida, you’re gonna get it bad. When the forecast track keeps shifing each model run, chances are that the actual track will follow the change in trend. FL is gonna get pounded. As far as surf is concerned, we should continue to see minor swell from both storms through the weekend. Yup! Nicole is now a hurricane. Hurricane Nicole is doing her little wiggle right on 65W so we should see some smaller surf generated from the north and northeast. Matthew swell will be WNW and fairly weak. Isabela will be the call for this weekend with dead winds or south winds and non-stop Nicole swell. Get your fix up there! The contest should have perfect waves the entire event.

If Matthew does the Loopty Loop we’ll have NW swell.

Check out that forecast path! The loopty loop is not the most common occurrence, but if it does happen we should see some solid swell. Granted, Matthew is forecast to be only a Tropical Storm at that point and the swell would be considerably bigger if he was still a major hurricane, but all of the models are calling for weakening. Look for Loopty Loop swell to fill in from Wednesday of next week through next weekend if it actually happens and Matthew is still organized at that point. We could see some EPIC NW swell.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.