Rincon Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – October 9, 2016

Hurricane Matthew finally goes out to sea – surf time!

It’s about time. Matthew went from a predicted path of maximum surf and minimal destruction to an actual path of maximum destruction and minimal surf. Now that he’s moving out to sea and absorbed in a cold front we can just think about the surf. Most of next week should go off! The first couple of days should be fairly big, and then fading leftovers in the fun chest high range for the rest of the week. I’m a little bummed we don’t get the Loopty Loop path, but to be honest the Loopty Loop is kind of a super rare occurrence and I never really had too much faith in it. Hope yes, faith no. The current forecast makes more sense and is a bit more reliable as a result. Get ready to surf your brains out! And if you’re flying in for the swell, book a photo shoot with me!

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.