I like it when things change for the better – more surf on the way!
We have a nice setup to keep some waist high surf on our beaches for the next few days and through the weekend. Some days with the right tide will still see some chest high sets. Early next week we could possibly see another big swell. This season has been going great so far! I hope it keeps up.
Here’s how I see things playing out for surfing Rincon:
Wednesday – Chest high and glassy all morning everywhere in Rincon and fading through the day.
Thursday – Waist to Chest high and mushy at the most exposed breaks.
Friday – Waist high and glassy at the most exposed breaks.
Saturday – Waist to Chest high and glassy in the morning at just about every Rincon spot.
Sunday – Chest to Head high and glassy in the morning at the more exposed breaks.
Monday – Double overhead and powerful with clean conditions at protected spots.
Tuesday – Head high to a couple feet overhead and glassy fading fast through the day.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.