What A beautiful storm! More swell for surfing Puerto Rico.
Not only is that low setup right in our swell window, it actually dipped hard south – like straight down as it amplified and high pressure is building in behind it. This will keep a fetch going across a lot of the Atlantic and the swell should continue to rage. And in the long range we have a really strong late season winter storm crossing the states as we speak. We’re set to have surf for quite a few days!
Here’s how I see it playing it out:
Tuesday: Double Overhead and Perfection fading to 2-3ft overhead by the evening.
Wednesday: 2-3ft Overhead and glassy in the morning with some bigger sets still in the water.
Thursday: 2-3ft Overhead and glassy in the morning with heavy winds later in the day.
Friday: 2-3ft Overhead and glassy in the morning with some double overhead sets.
Saturday: 2ft Overhead and glassy in the morning with smaller surf later in the day.
Sunday: Head high and glassy.
Monday: Chest high and glassy.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.