Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – April 16, 2015

NE swell on the way for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

NE swell on the way for next week (flat until then).

We finally have our NE swell setting up. The weather was dragging it’s feet a bit with this one and the waves we were all hoping for this weekend won’t get here until Monday. That’s the only bad news about this forecast. The good news is that most of next week will have rideable waves. Rincon will probably be about waist to chest high for most of the week with mushy conditions and longboard waves at the most popular spots. Some of the shortboard breaks will probably be fun on the low to incoming tides. The winds are currently forecast to be weak most of next week which means super glassy mornings and then onshore seabreeze chop everywhere in the afternoons until the afternoon showers clean it up. The period is looking decent (above 12 seconds) so we should have fun surf here in Rincon.

The north side of the island will be really good!

Here’s the thing – even though Rincon will have decent waves, the North side of the island should have glassy morning conditions and waves twice as big as Rincon. The NE angle will be a direct hit for a lot of spots up there with just the right amount of tilt to have a really good quality wave. Whenever a 4ft swell at 15 seconds from the NE is going to hit the right spots up there with light or south winds I start frothing just thinking about it. A swell with those criteria often makes surf in the 2ft overhead range with barrels on the low tide.

Can’t make the drive? Don’t worry.

If the period stays long (which it should), a lot of super fun shortboard spots will be going off still in the chest to head high range with some tiny barrels at the right spots here in Rincon too. The longer period keeps the power in the waves even though it’s not a direct hit to Rincon.

Today

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sun

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Mon

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Tue

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Wed

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Thu

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Fri

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sat

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.