When this baby hits buoy 41115 we’re going to see some serious surf!
Between 5am and 8am this morning buoy 410149 was hit by the incoming NE swell. Give it about 48hrs and we should see it on the beach here in Rincon. About four to six hours before Rincon gets it, the north side of the island should be seeing some head high and bigger surf. I originally thought this swell was going to stall until Monday, especially since NE swells tend to delay a bit more than NW swells in their arrival compared to the models. However, the real life data supports the swell arriving early Sunday morning! That’s good for everyone down here! The models are also keeping swell in the water all next week. It really is a good setup.
Longer period pulses next week will provide the best quality waves.
The wind should be light and the period should be decent which will let the NE swell reach around further into Rincon and open up the options for surf spots each morning. There should be plenty of options to avoid the crowds. Some of the days are even currently forecast to see some 16 second period swell – that’s going to be awesome! I will be keeping an eye on this swell as it develops and try to update the forecast as much as I can.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.