Rincon gets skunked this weekend.
A lot of people were hopeful of some decent swell this weekend. A lot of the automated forecast tools were indicating a moderate swell event. I never really got on board with that. Unfortunately I was right. We will stay small to flat for the weekend. We’re currently forecast to remain small to flat in Rincon for the next 7 days, but after watching the satellite loop for bit I can’t ignore the explosion of storms around another frontal boundary. Granted, the storm will probably go up and over our swell window for the most part. But I can definitely see a decent NE swell forming in the North Atlantic if this system can stay strong. I’m going to make a real effort to be more in tune with the forecasts again and might even start doing some video forecasts. Let’s hope for some swell next week!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.