Storm Surf on the way for Rincon, Puerto Rico.
As I promised, we will have surf all weekend. The conditions might be a bit stormy and treacherous over the next couple of days, but the weather should clear up for the weekend. The north side of the island is going to have some overhead surf on just about the entire coast. Winds should be dead, but the conditions won’t necessarily be glassy. The weather system currently closest to us isn’t the most organized which means any swell it carries with it will probably be a bit wobbly. Here in Rincon expect some waist to chest high surf to show up from Friday through Sunday with a chance at the biggest surf on Sunday. Gaston will be the deciding factor as to what happens next week. If he can pass 65W then we have a much better chance at having waves for most of next week. If he keeps his current track it will be more of a North coast of PR surf event. Have fun and be safe!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.