Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Aug 28, 2022

First shot at tropical surf for the 2022 hurricane season.

After a very long, flat wait we have something on the long range models to watch closely. The formation of a tropical system directly in our swell window has been a consistent feature of many model runs. The exact timing is quite uncertain but Saturday and Sunday keep getting pegged as possible swell arrival days. The image above is a wind forecast image rendered for next Saturday. Thursday and Friday of the coming week will probably be good at East Coast and North Coast Spots for the initial arrival regardless of development due to the location of the disturbance. So we might have some swell for a few days, that’s the good news. The bad news – an already overcrowded, no off-season, Rincon will have waves on a holiday weekend. Crowds are going to be terrible at the main breaks. Foam board carnage is forecast to increase drastically as Costco boards fly off the shelves. Those with the right ace up their sleeve and the patience to go for a long walk will be able to find uncrowded surf when the wind goes south and NW swell fills in. That’s the other good news. Also a note to all visitors – RESPECT THE LOCALS AND CONTROL YOUR BOARDS!

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.