The new norm – Iceland sees all the weather and waves while the surf in Rincon stays inconsistent.
Remember when you used to read headlines about bad winter storms in the US and know that Tres Palmas would be firing in a couple of days with week long swell events? Remember when we had swell events? The new norm in the weather seems to push all the energy from the storms on the other side of the Atlantic and pull all the surf up north. I imagine surfing Iceland right now must be insane – both for the waves and the literal insanity it would take to try and surf up there. If anyone who checks this site is from Iceland please contact me. I have so many questions. All that said, we should see a short day or two pulse show up tomorrow. It will be fading by Friday evening so get it for all it’s worth. We go back to surf lesson purgatory conditions for the foreseeable future after this. If mushy waist to chest high surf, long waits between sets, harsh crowds, and foam board dodging is your thing – you will be stoked out of your mind this weekend. At least Thursday and Friday of this week should be fun. Stay safe.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.