Active weather in the surf forecast for surfing Puerto Rico.
The endless supply of tropical waves coming off of Africa is really starting to pile up across the Atlantic. All this heat should give them plenty to feed on. Over the weekend we should see one pass just north of our island and give us a possible little bump. In addition we have a weak low that pulled off the states and is sitting in our swell window. Any increase in the intensity of any of the above mentioned weather systems and we could be looking at some fun surf. As it goes now, the best chance for quality surf here in Rincon is looking to show up early next week. Over the weekend, the north side of the island should see the most size from this tropical system with some head high surf at the right spot. The conditions might be a bit nasty though.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.