Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – August 16, 2021

Tropical Storm Henri Drunkenly Meanders Into Existance – Surf?

Yup, another tropical system develops in the Atlantic today. Henri, is a small but persistent little storm forecast to do a little loop out in the Atlantic near Bermuda. Henri doesn’t really have a long term plan. He just kind of showed up, figured he’d take advantage of the lower shear and high ocean heat while he can before getting swallowed up by shear and drifting who knows where. If by some chance he’s able to grow quickly and actually do the loop around we could see a major swell event develop. As it is now, he just is a random storm living for today. Grace was another micro, baby swell event with a tiny ankle banger at the most exposed spots in Rincon. We could really use some surf.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.