Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – August 24, 2021

The tropics are active, but the surf stays flat.

Wow, we’re just getting the hard skunk this summer. This week will feature a relentless, hazy heat wave filled with dust and desperate cries for a pattern change. We see so many possibilities in the weather map above, but the steering currents just don’t favor throwing anything into our surf generation zones, aka swell windows. It’s bad enough when this happens during the winter, but to happen during the winter and summer really puts a damper on things. We will get waves again one day, somehow. But I don’t see it happening any time soon. I’ll update as soon as I see anything that might change that.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.