Classic Cold Front and Solid Surf!
I know that unfulfilled expectations has been the theme so far with these winter storms and the surf in Rincon, but this one’s different. We finally have a fetch pointed down at us behind the storm instead of the entire Atlantic being pulled up and thrown at Europe. I’m seeing a classic cold front with some classic surf. Decent surf at least 2-4ft overhead should start Tuesday. I’m also hoping that the powerful long-period can get a few spots throwing some barrels on the low to incoming tide. The swell event should last through the week with smaller conditions for next weekend. I’ll keep watching the models and live satellite feeds to confirm things go as currently forecast and update as necessary.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.