Long Period NE swell for surfing in Rincon, Puerto Rico.
You just don’t have a storm that big and not see at least something. For now it’s looking like a solid start to next week with chest to head high surf with decent power. Even though the swell isn’t the best angle for Rincon, the longer period means it will have to power to get a lot of spots working perfectly. Current model runs put the arrival on Monday and I wouldn’t be surprised to see sets a couple of feet overhead. Tuesday the swell loses a little bit of power and will probably be around chest high and a little weak. Wednesday another round of long period swell shows up keeping things head high to a couple of feet overhead again. What happens after that depends on a lot of weather in the making. I’ll update when I see things shaping up with a little bit more certainty. Have fun!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.