Cold-Front swell on the way!
That front is dipping LOW! This should be a fun swell event with NW swell and SW winds for the arrival. Judging by what I’m seeing on the outside buoy’s I would put the arrival either late Wednesday or Thursday morning. But there’s definitely plenty of NW swell starting to hit the North Atlantic buoy. Some background swell will still persist before then but this week will see the main event with Thursday and Friday seeing some overhead surf and decent waves through the weekend in the chest high range with bigger sets.
But what about that mystery long period swell on some forecast tools?
I’m just not seeing it materialize on any of the buoys. I would love to be wrong about this, but I’m pretty sure we’re not going to see long period swell ahead of this next swell event. Depending on what forms behind the low dipping cold-front we could possibly see the swell linger and some longer period swell fill in late next week from the current system. That concludes this week’s portion of wishful thinking. Have fun in the water, enjoy the weekend swell and stay safe!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.