Rincon Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Dec 22, 2015

A windy week ahead – hopefully some surf too!

All of the models are calling for a lot of wind this week. Will swell be able to punch through? I really don’t know. None of the models called it correctly on this past weekend. We had waves, just not in the size that we had all hoped for. My forecast was off by a notch or two to the downside. Going into this coming week, I’m going to rely more on the satellite imagery instead of model runs and see what happens. So here we go…

What I see the surf doing this week in Rincon.

Tuesday’s bonus swell will fade out by the end of the day with maybe some waist to chest high leftovers at the most exposed breaks super early Wednesday morning going almost flat by the end of the day. The strong winds will make it hard for anything but wrap-around windswell to show up on the beaches, but there is supposed to be some longer period swell in the background. This might amount to super lully but rideable conditions for the rest of the week. The strong winds will limit the number surfable spots drastically. To me this seems like a recipe for frustration because you’ll see sets big enough to keep you in the water, but the amount of people will keep you from actually getting one. I might be wrong though and we might end up with glassy waist to chest high waves every day this week – this is of course the opposite of what I’m expecting to see.

How to beat the crowd:

Surf a less than ideal wave super early on the north side of Rincon, go up to the north side of the island super early, or just time it right and wait for everyone to get out of the water at the most popular breaks in Rincon.

What could change everything:

If the current cold front that is on the eastern coast of the US can pull out further than anticipated and not go up and over our swell window, everything will change. We’ll have a completely different forecast. I’ll keep an eye on the satellite loops and update as needed.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.