Weekend Update – Surf is on the way!
Tomorrow morning will be flat. The models are calling for the swell to arrive on Saturday. Buoy data has me hoping that we might see some swell creep in tomorrow afternoon, but more than likely we won’t see it until Saturday. The swell event looks to last from Saturday through the coming Monday with smaller and windy conditions persisting through most of next week. The biggest day will probably be Sunday. The winds are currently forecast to be light on Sunday as well. This means just about every Rincon spot should be going off with head high glass and bigger sets into the 3ft overhead range. The angle is most likely going to have some NNE tilt in it which can make for some long rides if the period can stay above 12 seconds. We’ll have to wait and see. It’s good to see the end of December lining up to have more surf. Overall, this has been a pretty slow December wave-wise. Have fun out there, don’t get in fights, pick a less crowded spot, and surf your brains out!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.