More cold front surf on the way!
The coming weekend is currently forecast to see some more swell from another cold front. That’s great news especially since we’ll probably have rideable surf on tap for most of the week. Strong high pressure should build a long fetch behind the powerful storms in the far North Atlantic. This means we should continue to see long period NE swell. In the near term we should have fun chest high surf through mid-week. Thursday and Friday will see the smallest conditions probably in the knee to waist high range which will be perfect for surf lessons. By next Saturday another long period NE swell should come in with surf in the 2ft overhead range. December started off slow, but it’s looking better. Still no massive NW swell on the models, but these long period NE swells are super fun.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.