Finally some surf on the way – get ready!
This weekend should feature a decent swell event with some chest to head high surf and bigger sets on Sunday. This is how I see it playing out. The surf will start off in the waist high range on Saturday and then build into chest to head high by the afternoon and evening. The wind is supposed to be out of the east so the west facing side of Rincon should remain surfable. Sunday will be the best day with chest to head high surf, some 2ft overhead sets, and glassy conditions. Monday will be the fade out day with waist to chest high surf, clean conditions, and become less consistent as the day goes on. Early next week might see weaker leftovers linger around and background swell.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.