December is looking like a skunk month.
I have been procrastinating on writing this forecast mainly because i do not like it. All of the long range models are putting the current and future cold-fronts on a path that avoids our swell window to a large degree only to amplify them in the far Northern Atlantic and dump endless swell at Europe. This has been a pattern very common to the last couple of seasons so I’m inclined to believe that the forecasts are going to come true.
No waves in December? Really?
We should still see some waist to chest high days here and there, but for the most part no big swells are showing up on the models. I think a realistic hope is that some of the higher latitude storms get so big and strong that we get some long period NE swell which could make for some really fun days. Just make sure you don’t surf a crowded spot on those good days because long period NE swells tend to have a lot of lulls and long waits in between sets.
Short term forecast:
We stay small for the next 10 days. The conditions will be perfect for beginners, non-picky/high-stoke longboarders, and surf lessons. For everyone else, go fishing or diving! There has been so many schools of various fish running right now. Get some!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.