Plenty of weather, hopefully plenty of waves.
If you’re tired from all the nonstop swell we’ve been having, this will be your week to rest. Though there is a lot of weather going on, the surf will stay smaller here in Rincon for the most part. This is due to the NE to ENE angle to any swell that shows up. Though we will fluctuate through the week and weekend, the biggest we will see is waist to chest high conditions and the smallest will be knee high surf lessons waves. The winds should be light most of the time and leave both the North and West sides of Rincon glassy for any swell that shows up. Bear in mind that with all that weather going on in the Atlantic, the forecast can change for the better later on the forecast period.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.