The surf just keeps coming!
Do the happy dance (if you have enough energy to do so after the run of swell we’ve had). We have plenty of waves on the way. The models are stalling the new swell by a day or two, but I still think we’ll see it show up by Thursday with some NW angle. We might just see a more gradual build instead of an instant arrival. The good news is that we shouldn’t go completely flat before it gets here. Wednesday should stay around chest to head high and the smallest Thursday should get is waist to chest before the new swell starts to trickle in. Friday will be overhead and crank all weekend before slowly fading out early next week. This is a wonderful forecast to write.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.