More surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico!
Don’t expect anything huge through the remainder of the year, but we should continue to see a consistent flow of decent surf and fairly good conditions through the current forecast period. The weekend will remain on the smaller side in the waist high and mushy range, but early next week should be chest to head high and super fun. The current setup in the North Atlantic seems to have put itself on repeat. We have not gone completely flat all month with the exception of one day. Though we’ve only seen one bigger day, we have had plenty of waist to chest high days. This is what next week is looking like. Monday and Tuesday should be the bigger days, but the rest of the week looks to stay in the waist to chest high range.
Anything bigger on the horizon?
Maybe. Seasonally we normally get a big swell around the start of the new year. Bear in mind that any slight dip lower or amplification of the currently forecast systems could result in a major swell event for next week. There is plenty of activity to tilt the odds in favor of more surf than there is for less surf. If it doesn’t get too big next week, my guess is that we should see something happen early in the new year. Maybe around the 3rd.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.