Windy wind swell on endless supply.
December does tend to be the windiest month of the year here in PR. This December is no exception. The outside buoys rang up an entire day of swell 48hrs ago so it should be here by Monday morning. That’s the good news. Monday should have decent head high surf all day long. Unfortunately that full day of NE swell was followed by non-stop wind swell on the outside buoy. This means that after the NE swell runs its course we’re back to ENE wrap-around wind swell and weak N background swell. The rest of the week looks like it will have a gradual decrease in actual wind, but a steady continuation of wind swell should keep Rincon waist high with some bigger sets. The more exposed breaks on the north side of the island should see decent size throughout the week, but with fairly choppy conditions.
Keep an eye on the New Year Swell.
I called for the 3rd of January to be the first big swell of the New Year and it just might happen. Seasonally, it should happen by then. We definitely aren’t going to see it come any earlier though from what I’m seeing on satellite loops of the current winter storm systems. Unless something major changes, we’ll have to wait until the 3rd for the next big swell.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.