Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Dec 31, 2016

Get ready for some real surf!

The Bahamas buoy registered a full day of NW swell and just about every weather chart confirms that the weather from the past couple of days will push a solid run waves at Rincon, Puerto Rico. NW swells tend to show up a little earlier than the models expect so I wouldn’t be surprised if we wake up to some overhead glass with double overhead sets tomorrow. What a way to start 2017! Most of the models were pegging the afternoon for the arrival time, but I really do think we’ll see it earlier now based on real-time data.

Safety!

Don’t get yourself killed. The swell will be filling in strong and if we see double overhead or bigger conditions it will not be good for beginners. Either go to a tucked away and small spot or don’t get in the water unless you know what you’re doing. This is be the first big swell in a while and there is a lot of people on the island right now. Know your limits. Seriously.

Long term surf outlook for Rincon.

After Monday, the surf will drop down on Tuesday and turn back back to the usual NE to ENE wind swell by Wednesday and last through the rest of the forecast period. So if you’re looking for the big stuff make sure you surf tomorrow and Monday. Wednesday and beyond should still be pretty decent up North in the mornings. At the end of the forecast period models are trending on a long period NE kick back swell from this cold front. From it’s satellite presentation I would have to agree with this scenario so we might have a decent long period NE swell next weekend into next week.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.