Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Dec 25, 2018

Meet the next major swell event for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Those words “Rapidly Intensifying” on the weather map are generally a good sign that we’ll get a decent swell. Especially when the low pressure center of the front is out in the open ocean. High pressure is forecast to build below the storm and possibly behind it. All of the models are calling for heavy bit of wind with this swell event. If the high pressure builds more behind the storm we could see a decent fetch setup and that could send long period NE swell for days. If the same wonky lows build in behind the storm and high pressure dominates below it, we just get easterly wind chop and scraps for the rest of the year. The jetstream has been a bit sporadic and an unfavorable shift is what snuffed out the NW swell we were hoping to see yesterday and today. Anything can happen.

I want to believe 2018 will go out with a solid swell.

As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the actual swell conditions can go either way. I’m going to get real – there is a real possibility that wind chop garbage ends 2018. Granted, with PR being the wonderful island that it is, there will still be good waves at the right spot at the right time under this highly unfavorable scenario. However, if the favorable scenario plays out (long fetch across the North Atlantic and strong storm under Iceland) we’ll all be surfing our brains out all over the place. This is the scenario I want to believe in, but I understand that it really can go either way.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.