More surf on the way for Rincon, Puerto Rico.
I think this storm is going to beat the forecast expectations just like last week’s swell did. I believed, and it came true. 2018 ended with some fun waves. The crowds were heavy but that was to be expected for the busiest week of the season. January looks like it will start of decent with some chest to head high surf filling in over the weekend. Again, nothing too big in the forecast, but we should stay with rideable surf for a bit. Expect Thursday and Friday to be small to flat in Rincon. Saturday and Sunday could see some background swell fill in before welcoming a chest to head high NW swell on Monday. Hopefully this swell will stick around through Wednesday of next week.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.