Fun surf for days in Rincon, Puerto Rico.
Granted, the past week was great for surf lessons mania. But what if you don’t want surf lessons mania? What if you want to surf bigger waves? No problem. We finally have a short term pattern change in the weather and we should see a few back to back medium sized swells. Still no big swells on any model runs. The next couple of days should be fun in the head high range with sets a couple feet overhead. The winds are forecast to blow light SW on Thursday, but I’m thinking they’re pretty much going to just go onshore everywhere in the afternoons. The morning sessions will be the key. The swell we should see on Thursday and Friday is already in the water and on the buoys. The swell for Saturday and Sunday is going to be made between now and then. All the surface pressure maps are calling for a decent run of lower latitude weather systems (as far as winter storms are concerned) and this is the pattern that could keep everyone surfing for the next two weeks.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.