Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Dec 9, 2018

More surf in Rincon, Puerto Rico.

It’s hard to see a weather map like the one above and not anticpate a decent swell event. The models are currently ping ponging back and forth on this swell. I have a hard time believing that a lower latitude storm off the coast of NC won’t give us a nice NW swell. Traditionally, when a front pulls off the states that low, it’s a key indicator that a multi-day NW swell event will follow. I only see one possible hiccup. The fetch might take a little longer setup behind the winter storm than I would like to see which would delay things a few days. I’m still hoping to see NW swell show up as early as Thursday. In the meantime, we should see fun leftovers from our current swell linger on through tomorrow and then fade out to smaller conditions until this next winter storm throws the next round of swell at us.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.