NW swell forecast for Rincon, Puerto Rico.
We’re finally going to see some NW fetch setup behind this next cold-front. Though the front itself might not dip out as far as I would like into the Atlantic, we at least will have a good gradient and push behind the frontal boundary. We should remain with fun little background swell over the next couple of days. Friday the NW pulse should show up early and last through the weekend. If the front tracks out just a little bit more we could see a full week of waves from this weather system. On a classic cold-front setup we get a couple of days of NW swell, a couple days of N swell, and several days of NE swell as the swell event fades out. If all goes well, we should see that happen over the next week or so. Don’t expect huge surf, but we should be a couple of feet overhead on sets on Friday and Saturday. Have fun, stay safe.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.