Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Nov 21, 2018

More surf on the way for Rincon, Puerto Rico!

You don’t have to be an expert to realize in the chart above that the forecast is calling for a considerable jump in the surf showing up on Sunday. We’ve had really fun waves the past week with some surprise pulses here and there, but we’re going to fade back to very small over the next couple of days until the Sunday swell gets here. The models have been pegging Sunday as the day in consecutive forecast runs so I’m fairly certain we will see a jump up on Sunday. Expect sets a few feet overhead and glassy conditions. The swell is going to be medium period. Judging by the weather creating the waves, we’ll probably see several waves in each set and short wait times in between sets. I hope the surf sticks around a few days into next week but we’ll have to just wait and see.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.