Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Nov 13, 2018

Rincon stuck in the same pattern of smaller surf.

Unfortunately, I was correct in my previous forecast and it looks like the November pattern of up and over cold-fronts will persist. We should continue to see small long period pulses show up from the back sides of the endless storms that are giving Europe nonstop massive swells. Seems we won’t see a change in the jetstream until the New Year (possibly the spring). There will still be plenty of surfing opportunites, just don’t expect any waves with size for quite some time. Rincon should continue with small learner waves in the knee to waist high range over the next 10 days with random pulses a little bit bigger at random. The north side of the island should see some head high surf tomorrow with the passing of a Tropical Wave. The winds could possibly be light offshore as well.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.