This past cold-front was like a bomb set off in the Atlantic… and there’s another one on the way.
The buoys are lighting up with large long-period swell. The double overhead surf will probably continue tomorrow and then drop a notch down each day for the rest of the week into the weekend. Even though the angle will switch to a more ENE angle by the end of this swell event, the weekend could still remain in the waist to chest high range with clean conditions. I knew this month would rage! The 100% guarantee was that I would be out of town this entire time. I would have bet everything I own on there being waves this month while I was gone.
Beyond this swell event we will see small to flat conditions for a few days (ironically around the time I get back in town). However, around the 18th the models are going berserk with what could be a run of swell that could last into the new year. We might see some of the biggest swell of the season. I’m stoked to see what happens!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.