Weaker storm, higher latitude, smaller surf for Rincon.
We have had an incredible run of swell for the past two and a half weeks. This coming week will quiet down a bit and be a more traditional weak cold front swell with shorter period and more NNE angle than what we’ve gotten used to over the past few weeks. We should stay chest to head high for most of the new week with bigger sets on Tuesday and Wednesday. The mornings should be glassy, but the afternoons will probably be super windy. The position of the storm still lends itself to about two days of setup and swell generation time before the surf will pick up again so I’m thinking Monday might start off small. If the storm moves out quicker and gets it’s northerly fetch going earlier, Monday will start off bigger. Have fun!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.