Surfing NW swell in Rincon all week – happy dance!
The buoys are firing! This swell is gonna rage. The wind is the hard part to predict. From the looks of things, we’ll have glassy conditions everywhere in the early morning hours and every spot should be working. In the afternoons we might have onshore seabreeze everywhere or dead winds at random unless something more dominant takes control of the wind. I still expect to see some double overhead conditions when the bulk of the pulse shows up either tomorrow or Wednesday, but for the most part this swell shouldn’t be out of control. The surf should be powerful and have decent form. I love NW swell. This storm dipped off the states below NC so we should see a lot of west in this swell. The Bahamas buoy is currently reading 14ft at 13 seconds from the WNW. I expect to see at least half of that reach into Rincon with another few seconds on the period for good measure out of the NW. This storm looks beautiful on sat images! It’s moving away from us fairly quickly, but some decent fetch should setup behind it. I expect chest to head high conditions to persist through the end of the week and hopefully into the weekend. Tuesday/Wednesday will be considerably larger with some double overhead sets.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.