The wind swell shows up in Rincon!
The wind swell was solid on the outside buoys for about a day and a half after making my previous post. Today was the arrival so we could still see some of the wind waves show up through tomorrow after all. Granted, the form is a bit wobbly, but the there isn’t too much onshore wind at the beach so the rides are still fairly decent. Sunday is still looking like flatsville.
Next week’s swell is looking awesome!
It won’t be as huge as initially anticipated, but the next coldfront swell is going to be high quality! NW angle and long period in the 15 to 16 seconds range means a heavier wave with a lot of power. Even if the swell height doesn’t get much higher than 4-6ft, that angle and long period will make some sick sets near double overhead. Everyone play nice and have fun. Stay safe! If you’re out of your league, stay out of the water.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.