Rincon Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Feb 3, 2016

High pressure wind swell for the weekend.

I kept looking at the automated surf forecast tools with confusion over the past couple of days. I was seeing a lot of surf that was supposed to show up here in Rincon, but I wasn’t seeing it on the buoys. In fact, I don’t see anything favorable on the buoys for this weekend. When a NE swell is going to show up, you’ll normally see it on 41049 36-48hrs ahead of time. As of writing this there is no NE swell on that buoy. Looking at the live satellite animation on this page the only thing i could spot that could be faking out the models is high pressure wind swell. As a rule of thumb, ENE high pressure wind swell normally means flat for Rincon. I am kind of going against all of the big dogs with this forecast, but right now I’m calling for Rincon to stay small to flat until next week- knee to waist high for the most part. Next week is a different story.

We could see some massive swell next week.

If we get a low enough dip in the jetstream off the United States over the weekend, the next storm could swoop up a lower latitude system that is developing and make something spectacular happen. The models have been trending on this scenario to different degrees over the past few runs, but uncertainty is high. I’ll keep watching it to see if it pans out, but next week might bring the biggest swell of the season.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.