Weaker storm means weaker waves, but the surf should still be fun.
This next cold front doesn’t have as much power as the previous one, and the fetch behind the storm isn’t that strong or lined up at the moment. Most of the strongest winds are ahead of the storm and pushing the bulk of the swell out away from land and out to sea. Basically, even though the satellite presentation of the weather system looks impressive, this will not be a swell anywhere near as awesome as this past week’s swell. Even still, the lower latitude of the storm and the general position of the front should help some NNW swell creep in to Rincon early next week. Here’s how I see it playing out:
Saturday – Small to flat surf perfect for first time surfers, and kids.
Sunday – flat to knee high at best.
Monday – Chest to head high with clean conditions just about everywhere.
Tuesday – Chest to head high with glassy conditions in the morning and heavier winds in the afternoon.
Wednesday – Waist to chest high leftovers glassy in the morning, choppy by late morning and early afternoon.
Thursday – Knee to waist high surf with glassy conditions only in the early morning.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.