Rincon Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Jan 23, 2016

Classic NW cold front swell for Puerto Rico.

I am really liking this cold front! Plenty of fetch, low enough latitude, trough whipping out just right. Granted there isn’t a super strong high pressure behind the system, but look at all the gale force winds around it – it doesn’t need the turbo charger because it’s got plenty of power at stock. The oldschoolers here have told me in the past that before the internet and hi-res satellite imagery they just knew that if the winds blew south before a winter storm for 1 day the swell would be pretty decent. 2 days of south winds and the swell would be great! 3 or 4 days and you would have epic conditions. If the current forecast sticks we’ll have a great swell! I think this swell event is going to bigger and better than most people realize. The swell angle will have a lot west in it which makes for bigger and better conditions than one would think just looking at the swell height and period.

Sunday – Look for waist to chest high swell to persist in the morning and fade out into the early afternoon. Some of the front runners of the new swell might show up before dark with some head high sets.

Monday – Building NW swell that should reach double overhead by night time with light offshores for west facing beaches.

Tuesday – Double overhead and bigger all day with hard offshore winds at west facing beaches.

Wednesday – Head high with bigger sets and well groomed glassy conditions in the morning at west facing beaches.

Thursday – Chest high glass at all Rincon breaks in the morning.

Friday – Small surf lessons conditions at all Rincon breaks with glassy conditions.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.