Lower cold front ready to make some surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico!
I told ya so! Though a day or so earlier than I forecast in the previous update, we have our lower latitude storm. This thing is looking good and it’s not alone. We could very well see another storm like this again within another week or so. For now we will focus on the current storm system. I like what I’m seeing so far from the current storm. We could see the initial pulse as early as Saturday and the bulk of it on Sunday and Monday. We could easily see some double overhead sets on Sunday/Monday especially since the swell is forecast to have a NNW angle. After that we might see a bit of a drop over early next week to waist to chest and smaller. By mid-week into late weekend should see a longer period round two of swell if the second storm can stay on track. In the far reaches of the forecast, another storm might pull off the states and follow a very similar path with perhaps a more northward guidance than the current system and keep us all surfing through the rest of the month. February always tends to be the best month of the season.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.