Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Feb 6, 2017

More storms to keep the surf alive in Rincon, Puerto Rico.

When I look at the weather map above I see a lot of wind swell coming in the short term with a chance at some long period swell 5 days from now. Tomorrow should be decent with some head high surf with some bigger sets on occasion. Tomorrow will be the main pulse from the swoop of the storm. After tomorrow is when NE wind swell will stick around through the rest of the week and fade to ENE wrap-around wind swell after that. If the storm can continue to maintain its strength and stay symmetrical a fun long period swell could show up on Sunday or Monday. Seems like Sunday/Monday is the new long period swell day.

Long Range and the next Major Swell Event

Though nothing is currently showing up on the long range models, I definitely see a major swell event happening within 7-10 days. No sooner than 7 days and no later than 10 days. Notice the shift and lower latitude of all the weather over the Pacific in the satellite loop below? I want to see that same shift/dip swoop across the US with any associated low pressure system to confirm a major swell on the horizon. Because we’re currently seeing so much extreme weather in the extreme North Atlantic, it would be an overdue change in the weather pattern to not have an end of days winter storm sitting under Greenland. We should hopefully get a lower latitude cold front and the quality swell that comes with it.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.