Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Jan 15, 2016

More surf on the way for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

More Surf on the way for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Wow! What a week of big surf we had! This coming week will be considerably calmer but still have plenty of waves for everyone. The start of the week should continue to see some fun chest to head high surf with size dropping each day to surf lesson mania by the end of the work week. Tuesday might offer a unique scenario for Aguadilla and the north side of the island only. If at some point tonight the outside buoys pickup an 8hr run of long period swell from the NE, Tuesday could be very good at the more exposed Aguadilla and Isabela spots. The models aren’t as strong on this scenario as before, but they still call for a fluke batch of long period swell to hit only certain areas. 3-4ft at 18 seconds is what dream sessions are made of so I really hope to get on it if it materializes. Some special barrel spots could be working their magic.

When can we surf more big waves in Rincon?

I don’t know if it’s just the default setting for this time of year but it seems that the end of the forecast period of just about every model calls for a major NW swell 7 to 10 days out. Personally, I want to see what happens with the humongous winter storm that appears to occupy the entire Pacific right now. If that thing sweeps the states or we get something to develop anywhere near that magnitude in the Atlantic, we will have an incredible major swell event. Seasonally it would make sense that within the next two weeks we see another major swell event either way so the future holds nothing but opportunity.

Today

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Thu

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Fri

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Sat

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Sun

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Mon

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Tue

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Wed

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.