Better surf is just around the corner.
This next swell is looking like it will finally have a lot less wind than the last one. This means a lot more spots will be surfable and the added opportunities should help with crowd control. It also means we’ll see a bit longer period in the swell which makes for a stronger and better quality wave. On top of that, we’ll have a little bit of NW angle in the initial pulse, which is what Rincon loves the most. This means that even though the swell might not be as big as originally anticipated (or hoped for by some), we should still see plenty of overhead surf. So when will it get here? Saturday. The first bit of swell should be here by morning and build through the day. I really hope the wind forecast stays on track to keep the wind down so that it will be perfect waves everywhere. I’m sure that everyone visiting the island is hoping for the same thing. The swell should last through the weekend and into early next week. By late next week we are looking to have another system set up for the next swell. So far, plenty of surf this January.
What about from now until Saturday?
Expect smaller conditions perfect for surf lessons. It might be a good time to explore the many other things there are to do on the island if you’re visiting or get some work done if you live here.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.