Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Jan 20, 2017

What a beautiful storm – get ready to surf!

What you see above is a graphic representation generated from live wind data as of the time of this post. Notice how large and symmetrical that winter storm is? The last time we had a storm look like that setup in the same location was in November and we had an amazing swell. We should have a 4 day stretch of swell from this beast. Saturday and Sunday will see NNW to N swell and Monday and Tuesday will see NNE to NE swell with a long period. But that’s not all! There’s a double down! We have another powerful storm sweeping the states as we speak. This means that when the long period NNE kickback swell arrives from storm number one, storm number two will be pulling the winds hard offshore on it’s approach. Then as the swell from storm number one fades, the new NW swell from storm number two will fill in. Storm number two might also offer a 4 day stretch of swell also. This is basically the perfect setup.

How big will it get?

The size should stay in the head high to a couple feet overhead range, but I’m not ruling out some double overhead moments at peak times when the tide is just right and swell is hitting at just the right angle. We shouldn’t have the nonstop current battles that we had with the last major swell event so that should be good.

SAFETY:

Just because we’re not anticipating the swell to be massive doesn’t mean that there will be no risk. This will still be a powerful run of swell and the ocean always deserves respect. Be careful, be smart, don’t take unnecessary risks, and don’t just assume that nothing bad could possibly ever happen. Make sure you have a good leash in decent condition and that the leash string is tied properly and also in good condition. Boards will break on this swell and so will leashes. If it happens to you are you a good enough swimmer to make it back to shore? If not, then don’t paddle out.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.