NW swell in the making – get ready to surf!
This swell has a lot of west in it. It’s more of a WNW swell than anything. The storm isn’t swooping out as much or as quickly as originally forecast so I’m expecting more of a Thursday arrival, but a Wednesday evening session might see some action. Expect the swell to stay head high to a couple of feet overhead on the initial pulse. The NW angle should keep the tucked away spots fun. This is good because the wind is going to pick back up from the north and gradually switch to the NE. A lot of exposed breaks could be fun in the early hours of the morning, but will the wind will most likely make them a mess fairly early. The tucked away spots will be the call. The NW angle reaches everywhere though so the wind shouldn’t really be an issue. After Thursday, we will probably see a gradual decrease in size each following day, but we should continue with waist to chest high conditions through the weekend. In the long term, another storm is forecast to pull off the US right around when this swell event fades out. The satellite loops show a steady flow of storms spaced almost equally apart. Have fun everybody!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.