Major Swell Event – Surf in Rincon!
Now this is a storm! We should expect to see decent conditions persist through the weekend with moderate size. This storm is positioned nicely and a welcome change to our previous weather pattern. The bulk of the NW swell from this storm should hit earlier in the weekend and arrive by tomorrow. NW swells tend to show up early. Most models are calling for the main push on Sunday, but judging by the storms current location and associated winds I think it will get here early. The angle will be perfect for getting a lot of the tucked away spots working without the heavy wind of the previous swell event earlier in the month. This means that the early morning glass could last longer into the day. We’ve already been seeing surf show up that has been considerably better than the forecast models have predicted and even more solid than was measured by real-time data. I’m inclined to think that this weekend’s swell could get big when it maxes out. Expect decent leftovers for early next week. Because the storm is forecast to setup a nice fetch behind it, a long-period NE swell can be generated from this storm as well. The long-period swell setup will be what to look for at the start of next week, and if confirmed we will stay surfing with swell in the water into next weekend.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.